February 9: Warmer Today, Wet This Weekend


We got off to a chilly start this morning:
But those are the coldest temperatures we’re going to see for the foreseeable future! Abundant sunshine and southeasterly winds will push highs up to the upper 50s this afternoon:
Get out and enjoy the nice weather today, because while the weekend will be even warmer, it will also be pretty wet. Explaining this weekend’s rain chances is a little tricky: while it won’t rain everywhere all the time, rain will be possible at any point both Saturday and Sunday. The North American Model’s radar simulation from midnight tonight through noon Monday shows waves of showers headed through, but plenty of periods when it’s not raining.
The timing of those dry breaks is almost impossible to pin down, which obviously makes it challenging to make any plans to enjoy the warm temperatures — I’m thinking that the best rain chance Saturday will be around the middle of the day, with highest rain chances on Sunday later in the day:
That said, those higher chances depend on the behavior of little ripples in the large-scale flow in the upper atmosphere — so while I can confidently say “warm and showery” for the weekend forecast overall, my confidence in the hour-by-hour details is best described by Larry David:
Total rainfall shouldn’t be enough to cause widespread flooding problems, and our severe weather potential will remain very low.

Once the heaviest rain moves through Sunday night and Monday, we’ll cool off for one day Tuesday…then it’s back to above-normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday:
Those low rain chances Tuesday through Thursday aren’t a big deal right now. It’s basically forecaster’s way of saying “it probably won’t rain, but I can’t completely rule it out either.”

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